If President Trump and Republicans in Congress continue insisting on ending ACA premium tax credits now, up to 1.5 million more people will become uninsured. Consumers across the country will begin to receive notices of skyrocketing premium increases in early October, and when they window shop ahead of open enrollment, which starts on November 1, people will see unaffordable premiums and decline to enroll.
Leader Thune and Speaker Johnson claim Congress has until the end of the year to extend tax credits, but they know their delay will lead fewer people to enroll and cause higher premiums and out-of-pocket costs. According to the Congressional Budget Office, if Republicans wait until the end of the year to approve tax credits, an additional 1.5 million Americans will lose life-saving coverage as a result of the delay, and underlying premiums will be 4 percent higher because of the delay.
Sticker Shock Will Force Millions Off Coverage
Starting now, states are sending notices to consumers informing them that they will no longer receive a tax credit or that their tax credit will be greatly reduced. As consumers receive these renewal rate notices and begin logging into HealthCare.gov or their state Marketplace to window shop to select a plan starting on November 1, they will see premiums that are, on average, nearly double what they are paying this year. Any individual making more than about $63,000 and any family of four making more than about $129,000 will lose their tax credit completely and be left without any protection against high premiums. According to CBO, this early deep sticker shock will lead 1.5 million people to forgo enrolling in coverage for 2026 and become uninsured. This is because even if Republicans in Congress later agree to extend enhanced tax credits, consumers are unlikely to learn about it and won’t enroll. Furthermore, if enhanced premium tax credits are not extended before open enrollment begins, more people will be forced to settle for plans with high out-of-pocket costs and short-term or junk plans that lack consumer protections like coverage for preexisting conditions. As more healthy people are dissatisfied with these plan options and leave the market, premiums will increase for those who remain enrolled.
Consumers Are Already Beginning to Receive Renewal Notices
California, Maine, New York, and North Carolina are among the states that have already sent out notices of premium increases to health insurance enrollees. Maryland will send renewal notices in early October, and the remaining states will send them by mid-to-late October.