From: Tom Jensen, Public Policy Polling

To: Interested Parties

Subject: Health Care Fueled Sinema’s Election in Arizona

Date: November 13, 2018

A Public Policy Polling election day survey of Arizona voters found that health care was a top issue for voters in the state- and that they overwhelmingly favored Democrats on it, propelling Kyrsten Sinema to victory:

62% of voters said that health care was either a very important issue, or the most important issue to them. Those voters supported Sinema over Martha McSally 68-29. Although the final result was close overall, voters said they trusted Sinema over McSally on the issue of health care by 10 points, 49-39.

-Sinema especially had an advantage over McSally when it came to the issue of who voters trusted more to protect people with pre-existing conditions. 47% preferred Sinema on that to only 39% for McSally, and that advantage extended to 53-29 for Sinema with the independent voters who made her victory possible in a state where registered Republicans outnumber Democrats.

Martha McSally’s support for the Republican health care repeal agenda hurt her badly. Only 33% of voters said her support for repeal made them more likely to vote for her, to 45% who said it made them less likely to. In a race decided by 2 points, voters turning against McSally by 12 points based on her position on health care may have been the difference maker.

-McSally’s stance on health care was also a high visibility issue in the race. 85% of voters said they had seen, heard, or read a lot or at least some about McSally’s position on health care recently and among those voters 43% said most of what they’d seen was negative to only 24% who said most of it was positive.

-An overwhelming majority of Arizonans want to see the Affordable Care Act stay in place– 58% think it should be kept with fixes made to it as necessary, compared to only 36% of voters who support repealing it. Among independents support for the ACA is even greater, with 60% wanting to keep it in place to only 33% who prefer repeal.

Public Policy Polling surveyed 764 voters on election day in Arizona via telephone. The survey’s margin of error is +/-3.6%.